Each roll is an independent Bernoulli trial. P(at least one success in n rolls) = 1 − (1 − p)^n. The 50% / 90% / 99% confidence intervals come from n = log(1 − C) / log(1 − p), capped at the hard pity ceiling.
Tools & Calculators
Three high-traffic utility engines for Paint and Seek: crate probability, trade fairness, and coin yield optimization. All computation runs locally in your browser.
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Crate Probability & Time-to-Pity Calculator
Given your current coin balance and round yield, calculate the expected number of rolls, the total coin cost, and the real-world grind time required to hit the Legendary Gun Skin.
Open Calculator → ⚖Trade Fairness & Value Calculator
Compare your offer against the counter-offer on a 4-slot grid. The engine flags MASSIVE WIN, WIN, FAIR, LOSS, or MASSIVE LOSS based on dynamic True Market Value calculations.
Open Calculator → $Max Coin Yield & Speed Optimizer
Enter your preferred role, average win rate, owned pets, and active gamepasses. The optimizer returns the highest expected coin-per-hour and the optimal purchasing path.
Open Calculator →
Tool 1
Crate Probability & Time-to-Pity Calculator
Given the 500-coin roll cost and the published 5% Legendary drop rate, calculate the expected number of rolls, total coin cost, and real-world grinding hours required to reach a confidence threshold.
Inputs
Results
- Effective drop rate
- 5.00%
- Rolls required
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- Total coin cost
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- Coin deficit / surplus
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- Real-world grind time
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- Verdict
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Effective drop rate is capped at 100%. Rolls cap at the hard pity ceiling (200).
Tool 2
Trade Fairness & Value Calculator
Compare your offer against the counter-offer on a 4-slot grid. The engine flags MASSIVE WIN, WIN, FAIR, LOSS, or MASSIVE LOSS based on dynamic True Market Value calculations.
Your offer
Total: 0
Their offer
Total: 0
Value difference: 0
FAIR
Liquidity penalty: if one side has 3+ items and the other has 1, the multi-item side loses 10% of its raw value.
Tool 3
Max Coin Yield & Speed Optimizer
Enter your preferred role, average win rate, owned pets, and active gamepasses. The optimizer returns the highest expected coin-per-hour and the optimal purchasing path.
Your profile
Optimal strategy
- Expected coins / round
- —
- Expected coins / hour
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- Best role for you
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- Next best purchase
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- Break-even time
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- Add a profile and run Optimize to see recommendations.
Methodology
How the math works
True market value weights base acquisition cost, circulating supply, trade velocity, age multiplier, and variant flags. The verdict (MASSIVE WIN / WIN / FAIR / LOSS / MASSIVE LOSS) is a ratio of received-to-surrendered value with a 10% liquidity penalty when one side has 3+ items.
Expected cycle time blends round duration, intermission, and your role. Hourly yield = 60 / cycle_time × round_payout × (1 + Σ additive) × Π multiplicative. The optimal purchase path sorts unowned upgrades by ROI = (Δyield / cost) and filters ROI ≤ 0.